Chapter Summaries

World Disasters Report 2009 - ‘Focus on early warning, early action’

 “Super summaries”

Introduction: Early warning, early action – an essential partnership to prevent disasters.

World Disasters Report 2009 (WDR) focuses on “early warning, early action” – both key aspects of disaster risk reduction. The decline in human and material losses from disasters over the past 30 years is partly due to improved early-warning systems, many of them “high-tech”. Scientific advances have revolutionized forecasting and the communications technology used for warnings. But WDR argues that a more people-centred approach is essential to ensure information and warnings captured by satellites, computer modelling and other technologies reach the most vulnerable communities, which can then act on them. Early-warning systems alone do not prevent hazards turning into disasters. Early action, covering all timescales, is also essential. It is an investment for the future, and far more effective in the long run than responding to an emergency. But this seems to be a lesson that donors, governments and humanitarians have yet to learn.

Chapter 1: Early warning, early action – an introduction.

Modern early-warning systems emerged in the 1970s and 1980s in response

to drought-induced famine in Africa. Now, other hazard-specific early-warning systems have emerged, especially in developed countries, for frequent hazards. Tornado-warning systems in the US, for example, and early-warning systems for volcanoes. But early warning is not only the product of technology – it is also a system that requires an understanding of risk and a link between producers and consumers of information. Early-warning systems can be separated int risk knowledge; technical services; dissemination of warnings; and the response capacity of the authorities and those at risk. Of these, the most likely to fail are the last two. Enhancing early warning was a priority in the Hyogo process, which placed responsibility for implementation on governments. Local-level involvement, meanwhile, must start with the first element: building risk knowledge.

Chapter 2: Early warning – a people-centred approach and the last mile.

The people-centred approach to early warning focuses on how communities can understand threats and avoid them. Disasters are partly caused by external hazards, but they also stem simply from vulnerability: people being in the wrong place without adequate protection. Perhaps the most well-known risk assessment method of recent years is the “vulnerability and capacity assessment”, developed by the Red Cross Red Crescent. There is a consensus that information must extend to communities so as to facilitate their adoption of protective actions. The linking of early warning and early action with development aspirations is what motivates people to engage. Factors as diverse as knowledge, power, culture, environment, lifestyle and personality often determine whether people heed warnings. Engaging people outside any warning system is called the “last mile” – a term that expresses the sentiment that warnings often do not reach those who need them most. Addressing vulnerability in disaster reduction is often similar to promoting development, but in the developed world “top-down” approaches to risk assessment and early warning dominate.

Chapter 3: Early warning, early action – bridging timescales.

Faced with rising risks associated with climate change, early action is more important

than ever, but it works best when it spans a range of timescales – anticipating disaster by days, months, even decades. In the very long term, this “disaster risk reduction” could include adjusting development plans and enforcing building codes, but also working with local communities to assess the risks they face – particularly when these are increasing. Many scientific agencies have a mandate to contribute to development plans and are eager to do so. But early-warning products can be too technical and include large uncertainties, and they do not naturally lead humanitarian actors to a decision. Donors cannot afford to only fund disaster response: both development assistance and humanitarian action can be made more effective by increased early action

Chapter 4: Climate change – the early warning.

Climate change is the “ultimate early warning” and it has unequivocally been sounded. The threat of disaster resulting from climate change is twofold: extreme events will devastate vulnerable communities and the already-complex problems of poor countries will be compounded, possibly contributing to a downward development spiral. Early-warning systems can reduce the impact of individual extreme events, but more important is action to reduce vulnerability over the long term. “Climate risk management” is a direct response to climate change, and is important for agriculture, food security, water resources and health, and disaster risk reduction. The December 2008 World Climate Change Conference in Poznan, Poland, was the first of its kind to address the issue of adaptation and the first to have a strong representation from  humanitarian agencies. Climate scientists are talking about both “imaginable” and “true” surprises. Against this backdrop, the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre was set up in 2002 to develop a shared approach to support National Society work.

Chapter 5: Food insecurity – what actions should follow early warning?

There has been good progress in preventing the mass starvation last witnessed in the 1980s. But a similar pattern of food crises – though not as catastrophic – has continued more or less unabated since. In the Greater Horn of Africa, 20 million people face hunger, while transitory hunger and malnutrition, as a consequence of natural hazards or man-made crises, remain a major global challenge. CARE International estimates 220 million people now confront a food emergency – almost twice as many as in 2006. A simple definition of early warning in a food-security context is data collection to monitor people’s access to food so as to provide timely notice when a food crisis threatens. Early-warning systems have been adopted by governments, and although they face technical, institutional and financial limitations, they have performed relatively well. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification systematizes analysis to assist decision-makers. But early warnings are only as useful as the responses they elicit, and with food insecurity and famine, the authorities tend to wait until the critical phase, and then react with lifesaving measures while ignoring livelihoods. The assertion that “famines don’t occur in democracies” raises questions about governance and accountability. But compare the willingness to mobilize huge sums for the global financial crisis with the parsimonious response to recent humanitarian appeals for the world’s poorest.

Posted June 17, 2009